UC Berkeley Energy and Resources (BEAR) model

The Berkeley Energy and Resources (BEAR) model is a detailed and dynamic economic simulation model that traces the complex linkage effects across the California economy as these arise from changing policies and external conditions. BEAR is a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model: a system of simultaneous equations that simulate price-directed interactions between firms and households in commodity and factor markets. The role of government, capital markets, and other trading partners are also specified, with varying degrees of detail and passivity, to close the model and account for economy-wide resource allocation, production, and income determination. Structural detail includes:

  1. 50 production sectors and commodity groups
  2. Employment by skill and other occupational categories
  3. Trade with the rest of US and abroad, federal, state, and local fiscal accounts
  4. Enterprise accounts
  5. Household expenditure and income for nine tax brackets
  6. 14 Emissions categories, including CO2 non-CO gases, water and soil contaminants

The BEAR model utilizes a nested CES (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) for energy resources and has four components: (a) a core general equilibrium (GE) model, (b) a technology module, (c) an electricity model which relies on producer data from the California Energy Commission, California’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) program, and other sources, and (d) a transportation module that tracks vehicle fleet turnover. BEAR’s scenarios are temporally disaggregated as follows: (i) annual time steps between the present and 2030 (i.e. the “Policy Horizon”), and (ii) five-year time steps between the present and 2100 (i.e. the “Climate Horizon”). A county-level version of BEAR is currently under development.

Modeling team: Principal Investigator: David Roland Holst; Graduate Student Researchers: Samuel Heft-Neal, Drew Behnke; Undergraduate Research Assistants: Adam Soliman, John Wisniowski, Namkyu Chang